XI. SFO - Projection for Passenger Demand
SFO supports its claim that it needs new runways by citing projections that call for significant growth in passenger demand. In spite of the emphasis that SFO puts on the projected growth in demand, the multi-billion dollar runway reconfiguration will not increase the overall capacity of the airport in typical clear weather conditions because it does not increase the number of active runways.
Many of these projections assume continued strong economic growth and low ticket prices. Projections that call for robust growth could prove to be overly optimistic. The U.S. economy has slowed down significantly during the last 6 months and airline operating costs are on the rise.
Low ticket prices have been largely dependent upon low fuel prices and controlled labor costs. The 1998 projections by the U.S. Department of Transportation called for fuel prices to steadily decline in real terms at least until the year 2011 26. In fact, fuel prices have climbed dramatically from a low of 44¢ per gallon in March 1999 to a high of 90¢ per gallon in late 2000 27. Labor costs are also on the rise as a number of unions resist airline efforts to limit wage increases. In 2000, many delays resulted from a disagreement between United Airlines and its pilots. In 2001 there may be similar problems resulting from ongoing labor disputes at United, Delta, American, and Northwest.
It is likely that there will be an increase in the number of people flying. The best solution is to fly more people using fewer planes. Fewer planes means fewer delays, less pollution, less noise, and reduced operating costs for the airlines. Alaska Airlines is adding 22 new Boeing 737-900s to their fleet that will each seat 174 passengers. The average plane in their fleet during 2000 seated only 137 passengers. With a fleet that is an average of 7.5 years old 28, Alaska could easily replace all smaller aircraft before new runways could be completed and see a 27% increase in passenger capacity without any increase in flights.
SFO's own statistic show that the actual number of flights into and out of SFO is declining. The most recent aviation statistics posted on SFO's website are for July, 2000 29. July is typically the peak month at SFO. The July 2000 numbers show that the total number of flights operations at SFO was 2.5% below the July 1999 level and 4.5% below the July 1998 level. SFO's staff confirms that the annual number of flights has actually been dropping over the past 2-3 years.
26 U.S. Department of Transportation, Form 41 (1999)
27 Bureau of Transportation Statistics - http://www.bts.gov/oai/fuel/fuelyearly.html (1/29/01)
28 Alaska Airline Magazine, January 2001, Page A2
29 http://www.flysfo.com - about SFO - air
traffic statistics