Forecasts relied upon by SFO call for a dramatic increase in the volume of passengers and cargo moving through SFO. By 2020, the projections call for SFO to serve 63,000 additional passengers per day and for air cargo flights to more than triple. Most of the passengers and all of the cargo will move in and out of the airport via the surrounding roadways and freeways. This will result in significant increases in congestion on Highways 101, 280 and 380 and the Bay Area bridges. Highway 101 already reaches and exceeds full capacity on a regular basis. Based upon the historic rate of vehicle trips per passenger¹¹ , SFO would see an additional 70,000 vehicle trips per day. While use of BART may reduce the number of vehicle trips, the increase in air cargo could result in hundreds of additional tractor trailer trips.

A significant increase in the number of passengers served by SFO will also mean an increase in the size of the workforce at SFO. Many of the workers employed at SFO do not have income levels that will allow them to live in San Francisco or San Mateo Counties. These employees will add to the increase in traffic. Some workers will take BART to SFO, but according to the Regional Airport System Plan, 71% of airport employees will drive to work.

One of SFO’s primary goals in building runways is to reduce delays for air travelers. If SFO grows beyond the capacity of the roadways that serve it, air travelers will suffer new ground delays. These ground delays will also be shared by the non-flying public including commuters and operators of business vehicles that use Highways 101, 280, and 380. If a passenger must allow an extra 30-60 minutes of driving time to get to the airport, he is likely to suffer a net time loss even if his flight departs on time.

The solution to the SFO traffic problem is to spread demand more evenly among the Bay Area airports and to look into an additional airport to handle passenger and cargo demands. While these solutions do not benefit SFO’s bottom line, they result in a better system for the region. An examination of the airports in the area of New York City, Washington, D.C., or Denver will serve as a good example. In each of these metropolitan areas, a new airport was built in an outlying area to meet growing demand.

An examination of the airports in the area of New York City, Washington, D.C., or Denver will serve as a good example. In each of these metropolitan areas, a new airport was built in an outlying area to meet growing demand.

An airport can only grow so large when it is located in the heart of an urban area. At some point the load must be spread out. Today SFO is the ranked No. 5 among U.S. airports and No. 9 in the world for number of passengers served. SFO’s growth goals call for SFO to ultimately attain the passenger levels that Los Angeles International Airport has reached today.

¹¹P&D Aviation - Working Paper No. 5, Page 2-31 (3/15/99): 3,280 trips per million annual passengers

next section
back to index